As I write that headline I hope that I am wrong! I was wrong about the Republican Debate the other night. I figured Giuliani would fight a lot harder for the nomination, but everyone took the high road to show up the Democrats in an odd and temporary exhibition of Republican unity.
So now, I hope my predictive headline is completely wrong tomorrow.
Unfortunately, here is why I think I will not be wrong.
CNN is showing a Mason Dixon Poll the night before the Primary that shows the following results:
Registered South Carolina Democratic Voters Choice for Nominee
| |
All (Races) |
White |
| Obama |
38% |
10% |
| Clinton |
30% |
36% |
| Edwards |
19% |
40% |
Other recent polls have shown that 56-60% of African Americans are likely to vote for Obama tomorrow. (I suspect that CNN is not displaying the African American Column to essentially stir up more of a racial issue so that they will have something more extreme to report on.
It is worth considering that a majority of African Americans will not vote for Hillary, but it hints of racism when a majority of whites do not plan to vote for Obama.
Note history would indicate that CNN by pointing out this disparity might actually help Clinton and Edwards. This type of information too often in the past has turned African American voters off to the point where they did not show up at the polls at all, thinking that their vote would not count. Atlanta based CNN is essentially potentially fueling that fire to block the African American vote.
Dynamics of Turn Out and Blocked Turn Out in South Carolina
This is what the Obama and Clinton Campaigns will be doing tomorrow based on those and other polls. They will be promoting the base that is for them to get out and vote and they will be working to dishearten the portion of the base not likely to vote for them to stay home and give in.
Edwards as a white son of the south is in a weirdly neutral position and is only disliked by people that were negatively impacted by some of his lawsuits when he practiced in this area, especially in the medical professions.

What is so sad about this is that in South Carolina, people are lining up on racial lines to choose a President. Now, this is not necessarily surprising. Iowa may be able to turn out a majority of white voters to vote for Barack Obama, but let’s face it South Carolina is no Iowa no matter how many snow birds like myself may move in a southernly direction.
I’m from Illinois and live in North Carolina about 14 miles from the South Carolina line by car and 2 miles by boat.
My Hope is a Massive Turnout
Now its cold here tonight. About 32 degrees and in Northern terms that translates to about 10 degrees below zero down here where the blood is thin. Fortunately, the forecast does look dry and it will likely warm up in the morning.
My hope is that South Carolina witnesses a massive turnout of all the races of people. At the end of the day, I feel that democracy will win if neither Obama nor Clinton succeed in discouraging any voters. Hopefully all of their negative attack ads will fail and people will go to the polls in droves. I’m not saying that people should not vote for Clinton or Obama, but I do want as large of a representative group as possible to make that decision together.
If that is not possible, then I hope that both Obama and Clinton’s attack ads backfire and the voters that actually do show up, I hope they vote for Edwards. I do not agree with Edwards on many points, but I do disagree with the political attacks that Obama and Clinton are engaged in right now. I do not think South Carolina will decide anything tomorrow as far as the general nomination goes. So if the Democrats were to receive a nice wake up call that attack ads are not going to be tolerated by the electorate and that the politics of discouragement are not to be rewarded then I think America will have taken a positive step in the right direction. No longer will politicians be able to put their finger to the wind, test the polls and take actions to block the people that do not like like unplugging the power of adjustable beds in hospitals to prevent the patients from getting up and out of bed to vote.
If this can be stopped, we will all have South Carolina to thank for opening the door to a great new future.