As tensions between Iran and the United States continue to rise over Iran’s alleged role in supplying sophisticated military weaponry to its proxy Shia fighters in Iraq, a diplomatic solution to Iran’s quest for nuclear power looks out of sight. In the past the Bush administration has assured us that while they’re not ruling out a military option, they have no intentions of invading or sending in planes to destroy its nuclear sites. It’s safe to say that their word means rubbish, as distrust from the Middle East–and to a lesser extent Europe–is at an all time high. Despite tangential threats emanating out of Washington as well as UN sanctions, Iran is speeding up the process of nuclear enrichment. So with a nuclear Iran ever the more likely, it’s time to consider some potential scenarios as a result of a nuclear Iran.
Consider this nightmarish scenario: The Saudis have gone nuclear. So have the Egyptians. Both countries had been signatories to the NPT (Non-proliferation Treaty), but that accord has now disintegrated. Riyadh and Cairo acquired their nuclear weapons from Pakistan, a Sunni ally, in response to the nuclear threat poised by Iran–a new MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) in the era of religious fundamentalism. At the same time, Iraq continues to explode, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is far from settled, and Iranian proxies remain ensconced within Lebanon’s incendiary sectarian mix–a mix that pits Sunni against Shia and just so happens to exist along the Israeli border. A rested and renergized Al-queda–thanks to Bush pursuing a petty vendetta in Iraq– now have a new breeding ground within which to launch its terrorist operations. In short, all the key players in the Middle East–Sunni, Shia, Israeli–now has nuclear weapons at a moment when the simmering and, and in some cases, quite open conflicts between regions’ states, sects, and ethnicities are too innumerable to count.
The grim hypothetical just presented is intended not to give the Bush Administration casus belli–as many neocons owlishly looming the halls of the Pentagon so desperately want. Rather, it’s meant to demonstrate what very well could happen if Iran does succeed in acquiring nuclear weapons. Acting aggressively only seems to embolden Iran and scare its neighbors. Perhaps aggressive diplomacy, not of the EU kind, could play out better. With our military stretched beyond its limits in Iraq, an invasion would be sheer madness.
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